US factory orders fell again in June, but the backlog reached nearly $1.6 trillion
New orders across all of American manufacturing fell 0.3 percent in June to $656.5 billion, the second monthly decline in a row, the U.S. Census Bureau reported August 4. Shipments slipped 0.2 percent to $652.1 billion, their first drop after six straight monthly gains.
This is the full factory report, covering everything from aircraft to breakfast cereal, and it lands a week after the advance durable goods report showed orders for long-lasting goods up 0.3 percent. Durables rose and the total fell, which points the June weakness at the nondurable side, the food, chemicals, paper and fuel that make up the other half of manufacturing. Nondurables also have no cushion: they're made and shipped more or less immediately, so their orders and shipments move together and a soft month shows up right away.
The backlog is the real number in this report
Unfilled orders rose 0.6 percent to $1,590.6 billion, and they've now risen in 23 of the last 24 months. That's nearly $1.6 trillion of work American factories have accepted but not yet delivered, most of it in long-lead categories like aircraft and heavy equipment.
The Bureau also publishes the backlog as a ratio: unfilled orders ran 6.86 times monthly shipments in June, down slightly from 6.90 in May. For the industries that carry backlogs, that's roughly seven months of booked work at the current delivery pace. A backlog that size is work factories keep doing even in months when new orders dip, which is a big part of why shipments have been so much steadier than orders all year.
The ratio falling while the backlog grew isn't a contradiction. Shipments in those industries grew a touch faster than the pile of orders did, so factories chipped at the backlog in relative terms even as it set another record in dollars.
Inventories rose for the ninth straight month, up 0.1 percent to $962.9 billion, and the inventories-to-shipments ratio ticked up from 1.47 to 1.48. That means goods are accumulating slightly faster than they're going out the door. One tick is nothing, but nine months of rising inventories against flattening shipments is the kind of slow drift this report exists to catch early.
The next full report, covering July, is due in early September.
Sources
All figures are seasonally adjusted from the U.S. Census Bureau's Monthly Full Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders for June 2026, release CB26-118, published August 4, 2026, with tables at the M3 data page. The durable goods comparison is from the advance report published July 27. Figures are in current dollars, so they aren't adjusted for inflation.
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What happened to factory orders in June 2026?
New orders for all manufactured goods fell 0.3 percent to $656.5 billion, the second monthly decline in a row, and shipments slipped 0.2 percent to $652.1 billion after six straight monthly increases. Durable goods orders actually rose 0.3 percent, so the weakness came from the nondurable side, which covers food, chemicals, paper, and fuel.
What are unfilled orders and why do they matter?
Unfilled orders are work factories have accepted but not yet delivered, mostly in long-lead categories like aircraft and heavy equipment. They reached $1,590.6 billion in June and have risen in 23 of the last 24 months. The backlog ran 6.86 times monthly shipments, roughly seven months of booked work, which keeps production steady even in months when new orders dip.
What is the inventories-to-shipments ratio saying?
It ticked up from 1.47 to 1.48 in June, with inventories rising for a ninth straight month to $962.9 billion. That means goods are accumulating slightly faster than they are shipping. A single tick is noise, but a long run of rising inventories against flattening shipments is an early-warning pattern this report is designed to catch.
