When Will Texas Surpass California in Population?

Most credible projections point to the same answer: Texas will surpass California as the most populous state in the United States around 2045 to 2050. The gap between the two states is large today, roughly 9 million people, but it has been closing steadily for two decades, and the demographic forces driving the convergence show no sign of reversing. California is growing barely at all while Texas adds hundreds of thousands of residents every year.

Where the two states stand today

California currently has 39,287,377 residents and Texas has 30,188,424, a gap of about 9.1 million people. California has been the most populous state since 1962, when it passed New York, and for most of the time since then its lead has felt permanent. But the dynamics underneath that lead have shifted dramatically. California's population has been essentially flat since 2020, even declining in some years, while Texas has been the fastest-growing large state in the country by raw numbers added.

The convergence is not about California shrinking dramatically. It is about California stopping its growth while Texas continues to grow at a strong pace. According to analysis of California Department of Finance projections, the state's own forecast shows California having roughly the same number of people in 2060 as it does today, with projections of essentially zero net population growth over nearly four decades. When one state stands still and the other grows by 400,000 a year, the gap closes regardless of how large it starts.

What the projections say

The specific timing varies by source but clusters tightly around the mid-to-late 2040s. According to Newsweek's reporting on a Realtor.com analysis, Texas is on track to overtake California and become the most populous state by 2045, based on a combination of US Census Bureau data and migration trends.

The official state agency projections point slightly later but agree on the outcome. According to Local Profile's reporting on Texas Demographic Center estimates, state agencies predict that by 2050 Texas will surpass California as the most populous state, with 44.4 million residents compared to California's projected 39.5 million. According to Newgeography's analysis of those same state projections, over the following decade the gap is projected to widen to nearly 5 million, with Texas at 44.4 million and California at 39.5 million by 2060.

The range across credible sources runs from roughly 2045 to 2050 for the crossover point. The variation comes down to assumptions about immigration levels, birth rates, and domestic migration, all of which are uncertain. But no mainstream projection has California retaining its lead past mid-century.

Why Texas is growing and California is not

The divergence comes down to three factors that all favor Texas. The first is domestic migration. Americans have been moving from California to Texas in large numbers for years, driven primarily by housing costs. The median home value in California is more than double that in Texas, and Texas has no state income tax. For a middle-income family, the financial math of relocating from California to Texas is compelling, and millions have made that calculation.

The second is the cost of living more broadly. According to analysis of the population trends, Texas's growth is fueled by a warm climate, a robust economy, a relatively lower cost of living, and immigration. Texas added over 400,000 new residents in a recent single year. California, by contrast, has seen its high housing costs, homelessness, and quality-of-life concerns drive both domestic out-migration and a collapse in the in-migration that historically replenished its population.

The third is birth rates and immigration patterns. According to the California Department of Finance analysis, California's slowdown is driven not just by people leaving but by a falling birth rate and a sharp decline in immigration, the two forces that had sustained the state's growth even during prior periods of domestic out-migration. When all three engines of population growth, namely domestic migration, immigration, and natural increase, slow simultaneously, the result is the flat trajectory California now faces.

The caveats that could change the timing

Population projections are not destiny, and several factors could move the crossover date in either direction. Immigration policy is the biggest variable. Both states depend heavily on immigration for population growth, and a significant change in federal immigration levels, in either direction, would affect both states but could affect them unequally depending on where new immigrants settle.

A change in remote work patterns could also matter. Much of the recent California-to-Texas migration was enabled by remote work that let people keep their incomes while changing their location. If remote work contracts and more jobs require physical presence in California's high-wage coastal economy, some of the out-migration pressure could ease. Conversely, if Texas's own housing costs continue rising, as they have in Austin and the major metros, some of its affordability advantage could erode over the coming decades.

There is also the possibility that California reverses its trajectory through policy changes aimed at housing production. The state's population stagnation is driven substantially by housing scarcity, and aggressive construction could in theory restore some growth. But the political and physical barriers to building at scale in California are significant, and few demographers expect a dramatic reversal.

What the crossover would mean

When Texas passes California, it will mark the end of an era. California has been synonymous with American growth, ambition, and arrival for more than 60 years. The state passed New York in 1962 and became the cultural, economic, and demographic center of gravity for the country. A Texas crossover would formalize a shift in that center of gravity toward the South and Southwest that has been underway for decades and is already visible in congressional apportionment, corporate relocations, and the geography of where young Americans are choosing to build their lives.

It would also reshape political power. Congressional seats and electoral votes are apportioned by population, and a Texas that is larger than California would carry more of both. The 2030 and 2040 Census counts will be the mile markers that show how fast the convergence is happening, and whether the mid-2040s timeline holds.

You can track both states' populations and compare their full demographic profiles from 1990 to today on the Texas and California state pages, or put them side by side using the Compare tool.

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